The danger in choosing the lower payment is that if rates go up, you
may elect to continue your short term philosophy driven by your inability
to make higher payment than those you have been making. By the time you
can afford the jump in payments, the long term rate may have climbed to
a level that you cannot afford. Your decision today may dictate your level
of comfort for the foreseeable future, so you must chose carefully.
Let me give you a tip that will eliminate the need to second guess the
economy, all-the-while giving you the rate edge you were looking for in
the first place. Go ahead and choose the lower rate if you must (this writer
would choose long term rather than take the gamble) but ask your lender
to give you the payment of the higher rate. In other words, if you know
that the monthly payments on a $100,000 mortgage at 7.5% are $731.55, ask
your lender to match those payments at the lower rate (5.5%). The lender
would then give you your mortgage at 5.5% amortized over 18 years rather
than 25 years.
Being used to the higher payment, if rates go up, you can afford to switch to a longer term (higher rate) mortgage without necessarily raising your payments. This is a much better idea while playing the rate game.